India resilient to Global Economic shocks

In the current era of globalisation, it is not possible for any economy in the world to function in isolation which also makes them capable of driving changes in other economies of the world. In 2008, US economic crisis turned into the Global Economic Crisis which was led by low interest rate over several years and the subsequent crash in the real estate market. Experts explained the situation as – ‘US sneezes, world catches cold’. Therefore, it is imperative that we read and analyse global cues to assess economic condition of a country.

Currently, US is again experiencing low interest rates and while investors are sceptic about investing in the equity market, stock pricing continue to climb. The World Bank has reiterated the statement by saying that current policies of US are pushing it towards economic crisis similar to that of in 2008. Furthermore, emerging markets such as India, China and Pakistan, among others are expected to be worst hit. 

From the trade perspective, one of the biggest driving forces for investment decisions in US is the current political administration of the country. Under President Donald Trump, the country has taken steps against other economies such as China and European Union who are playing ‘unfair’ on trade levels. This is pushing US towards adopting protectionism measures which could lead to drop in global trade levels. This trade war among world economies is also disturbing the stock markets. 

However, it must that noted that with the ongoing trade war between US and China, investors who seeks to invest in Asian markets will now prefer India over China, which improves prospects for the Indian markets.

Currently, the rally in US stock markets is led by positive sentiment with big internet and technology stocks driving the upward movement (Apple Inc breached $ 1 trillion in valuation). This has caused renewed enthusiasm amid economic tension due to turmoil in Turkey and concerns that bull-market is in the final stages. But there are signs of weakness too, as we see bearish concerns in the market.

Market pundits believe that such weakness in the stocks market can setup a chain reaction which may lead to market selloff in the following months, a condition synonymous with the global economic crisis of 2008. Experts have described the current situation as to that of exhaustion with only a few stocks driving the market rally and market correction that could taper the top 10% of the recent gains. 

Following the Lehman Brothers debacle in 2008, one of the biggest changes in the stock market was investors shifting to value stocks from growth stocks. Though growth stocks offer better upside but if investors want to be risk-averse ahead of a market correction, they view value stocks as a better market bet.    

In addition, the US Federal Reserve can also be attributed as one of the biggest driving forces for the stocks market. Fed Reserve is moving towards raising interest rates which could reverse the market rally which is led by low rates and the Fed Reserve’s bond-buying programme. Therefore, the market rally is not reflected in the corporate earnings of the companies. 

Furthermore, rising interest rates have also contributed to fear about rising inflation which can cause further correction in the market. It must be noted that a bull-run in the market does not last forever and every market has to go through cyclical changes. The Indian equity market too has matured by leaps and bounds over the last decade to handle global shocks. Political changes in India since 2014 and subsequent economic growth of the country have led investors to maintain a long-term view in the stock market. 

Not just domestic but Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have also placed greater faith in the Indian growth story. As a market matures, volatility reduces and investors play on strong market cues rather than speculation. Securitise Exchange Board of India has also rolled out policies to safeguard the interest of domestics and as well as foreign investors. 

The positive sentiment in Indian market will continue unperturbed by the stock market correction in US. More than global economic conditions, the US stocks prices were more responsive to the monetary policy by the Fed Reserve. This may have distorted the broader view of the economy (corporate earnings and economic growth). 

Since the global economic crisis of 2008, the last 10 years have helped the Indian economy develop more resilience to unforeseen blows in world markets. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of India is also keeping a close watch on the inflation levels and economic conditions and adjusting the repo rate accordingly. In the current scenario, regulatory bodies in India (RBI and SEBI) are better placed to tackle tough economic conditions and minimise market volatility.

I also believe that the emerging economies are better equipped to tackle economic situation before they led to an economic meltdown. Following the global economic crisis of 2008, markets across the world have taken a lesson that they need to build on strong fundamentals in order to protect themselves against international crisis. Though a tough economic condition is eminent in the US market, it is unlikely that India will suffer the brunt this time because over the last decade India has made efforts to remain protected against such economic crisis.  

Why Indian banking sector is under criticism and how can it be made better

The Indian government has implemented Centralized Online Real-time Exchange (Core) banking but majority of the Indian population still prefers traditional form of managing their investments. 

Under the NDA government regime, financial inclusion was one of the key focus areas for the government. However, private banking operation in the rural areas accounts for less than 2% of their total operations. Furthermore, loopholes in the banking systems keep these efforts of public sector banks from making any significant difference in the rural banking system. 

Currently, public sector banks form the lion’s share of the banking industry and their key area of focus continues to be priority sector lending in agriculture but in light of the evolving landscape, we can expect private sector banks also expanding their focus to the area. 

Recently, the ICICI Bank and Chanda Kochhar debacle bought the private sector banking under heavy scrutiny by the regulatory bodies and raised concerns about the integrity of the banking system. This sure has tarnished the image of the banking sector and coupled with poor quarterly earnings and rising NPAs only make the conditions worse. Going forward, government will have to make sincere efforts towards financial education to improve the health of the Indian banking industry.

Better awareness among the Indian population is expected to resolve issues related to instability in the Indian financial markets as investments will shift from assets such as gold and real estate to stock markets. This also speaks volume about the financial maturity of a country. 

India to stand as a middle-income economy by 2030

Investors inside and outside India are closely tracking the economic growth of the country and one of the clear indicator to evaluate its potential is the Gross National Income per capita. Estimate show that India will become a middle-income economy with GNI per capita of $1,005-$12,235, making it a middle-income economy, according to World Bank’s definition. But India must post strong GDP growth of 8% or higher to ensure the growth story. This is imperative to maintain inventor interest in the country.

Nevertheless, the journey is not going to be an easy one for India. Challenges such as low infrastructural growth, slow pace of labour reforms due to inefficiencies in the regulatory framework puts country’s economic development in jeopardy. The government should be able to strike a right balance between the growth and inflationary pressure. A strong banking and financial is also critical to ensure growth but it remain largely unorganized and recent surge in non-performing assets of bank are raising concerns for priority sector lending. India needs to become more conducive for public-private partnership. 

The government in India is not overlooking the challenges and is making focused efforts to resolve these issues. The NDA government launched programs such as Make in India and Digital India which have greatly improved the status of manufacturing sector in India and digital footprint of the country. Digital empowerment will ensure that companies are able to exploit the potential of the vast rural market. One such instance is of the e-commerce economy of India which has made it possible to rural India to access opportunities in other parts of the country.  According to India Brand Equity Foundation, e-commerce in India is expected to grow to $200 billion by 2026 from $38.5 billion as of 2017.

The condition is only set to improve further. One of the trait that sets India different from economies such as China is the growth of working population of India.  By 2020, the median age of India will be 28 which will increase the demand of jobs exponentially. Furthermore, the watershed event of 2019 will be the General election and India will witness a slew of initiatives which can be exploited for better economic growth. 

Exit from Court not Sport

This year’s U.S Open was nothing less than a bundle of unexpected events. With Rafael Nadal pulling out before the tournament and Roger Federer crashing out in the quarter finals, the fans could not experience one of the greatest rivalry in the world of tennis. Another shocker was the retirement of two former world number one tennis players – Andy Roddick and Kim Clijsters. Roddick, 2003 U.S open champion on his thirtieth birthday announced that this grand slam will be his final as a professional tennis player and Clijsters, three times champion (2005, 2009 and 2010) on that surface attributed it as the perfect place to retire. It is unfortunate that they couldn’t make it to the finals this last time.

Nevertheless, there were players who survived till the end – Andy Murray and Serena Williams. Murray defeated the defending champion Novak Djokovic in a five setter which lasted for nearly five hours and Serena Williams crashed the hopes of Victoria Azarenda 6-2, 2-6, 7-5 and clinched her 15^th grand slam title.

Andy Roddick has been a fighter throughout the course of his career and his final match as a professional tennis player in the Ashe stadium was no exception. He lost to Argentinian Juan Martin del Potro but not without a fight. The way he handles not winning (not losing) is what makes him different from others. He will continue to resonate long after the end of his professional career because fans will remember him for his fighting spirit and traits of a survivor which are the core of his appeal over other tennis figures. 

 Kim Clijsters on the other hand played the last match of her professional career right from where it all started – U.S open at Arthur Ashe Stadium. She played her last match against the brit Laura Robson who regarded Clijsters as a role model when she said “Thanks to Kim for being such a great role model for so many years, I've grown up watching you." What sets her class apart is that she won a grand slam title after becoming a mother, first to do so since Evonne Goolagong in 1980. Her list of records is as fascinating as her career. Taking this into account it will be safe to say that tennis for Clijsters is not just a sport but an art she masters.  

Therefore, it is distressing to see players like Clijsters and Roddick who held immense passion and loyalty for the sport going away. They were not merely two figures of professional tennis but outstanding players who held love and dedication for the sport for other to follow.

In terms of professional career their list of achievements is tremendous and fascinating at the same time. Before their exit, both, Roddick and Clijsters had tasted success and at times even failure during their career. It was nothing short of a fascinating tale of rise to the top of the pyramid. Clijsters had 41 single and 11 double titles in her kitty out of which four of them were grand slam title and Roddick holds 32 titles including the U.S open championship of 2003. 

The U.S Open of 2012 marked the end of professional career for these two epitomes of the tennis world but the American and the Belgian will continue to be projected as role models for the young players. 

Show at grand slams and other tournaments will continue year after year and the courts will continue to produce spectacular matches but without Clijsters and Roddick, tennis will be devoid of the magic. To pacify ourselves can we see any tennis star in the making who will be able to fill the void that their departure from the court has left in the hearts of many tennis fans?

Happy Teacher's Day

Albert Einstein said, “It is the supreme art of the teacher to awaken joy in creative expression and knowledge.”

Our parents give us birth but it is our teachers who mould us to what we go on to become in the future. Our teachers, our mentors are the ones who are always there to help us rise when we fall, believe in us even if we fail, lead us when we see no way forward and always inspire.

Everyone says that life is a learning process but is learning possible if we do not our teachers, our mentors supporting us all the time? From them we have learnt to take chances in life. They never let us lose hope even if we lose it in ourselves. Teachers do not only teach lessons from the textbooks but teach lessons for life ahead. 

P.S. - It is out of experience that I say this.

Green Signal

Nothing can flourish in isolation and a perfect way to illustrate this is the story of “Economic Liberalization in India”. The Indian government considered it best to guard the domestic industries against any kind of foreign competition. But this step had more negative impacts than positive outcomes. And to find out about those negative impacts read further…

Prior the 1991 liberalization reforms India’s closed door economy was confronted with economic crisis. These crises were shaped by problems like depreciation of the Indian Rupee against the foreign currency and huge fiscal imbalances. These traces of financial difficulty for India began surfacing in the mid 1980s.

Balance of payment crisis to be simply put, is imbalance between the imports and exports of a country. But in realistic terms in the pre liberalization era such an imbalance would be an understatement to quote the condition of Indian economy that time.

To make the situation worse India was denied credit by the Indian central bank - Reserve Bank of India. This was done because the foreign reserves of India were not enough to even afford three weeks worth of imports then. All thanks to the Indian insular economy which had more imports (from countries like Russian) than its exports and closed doors for Multinational Corporations pre LPG reforms.

In such a grave condition it was the International Monetary Fund which then came to rescue India from the verge of economic catastrophe.  But help from IMF came for a cost which can be better termed as economic reforms of 1991. To fulfill the condition of IMF as a part of their bailout India’s 9^th Prime Minister Dr. PV Narasimha Rao roped Dr. Manmohan Singh the Finance minister then and implemented the globalisation reforms in India in 1991. These economic reforms resultant of a deal with IMF due which India had to go through changes in terms of its economic structure and trade policy with the rest of the world.

Prior to this change in the economic policy the Indian government had been protecting its domestic industries from the rivalry by the foreign market. In such conditions the domestic industries had no incentive to perform better or match the standards of the foreign market. The consumers on the other hand had to purchase whatever was available to them in the Indian domestic market. Hence, the Indian consumers in the pre globalisation era were deprived the option or variety.

The liberalization policy, however, changed the face of Indian economy by leaps and bounds. The trade policy had undergone complete transition. India lifted may of its trade barriers against other countries from entering the Indian market and selling their products.

Now certain sectors like Infrastructure, automobiles, Information Technology, Food and beverages were open for Multinational Corporations to set their businesses in India. They started pouring in not only capital but also technological knowledge and other valuable resources as well. This lead to a surge in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and upliftment of the economy as a whole. By mid 90s the private capital had surpassed the public capital. India’s foreign reserves grew from 1 billion dollars to 140 billion dollars in a short span of four years after liberalization.

Nevertheless, many did not welcome this change. Like every new policy even this step by the government was detested by the small domestic companies which could not stand the competition. Small industries which did not have resources to expand and grow could not survive in the age to globalisation and had to exit the markets. Thus, the concept survival of fittest came into being for the Indian economy.

More than a decade later of this economic revolution in India, in the late 2000s it was time for India to see the other slope of Globalization. This was a negative and downward facing slope called “Recession”. Crisis like stock market crash, obstacles in banking sector, other financial crisis in U.S.A and its detrimental effects in the world economy are also effects of Globalization. India too had to bear its part of crisis like the other countries. One of the worst hit sections of the society was the hard-working middle class who were fired from their jobs and for others salaries were reduced. Investors too had to face a tough time as the stock market was covered by gloom worldwide. Nevertheless, India made a speedy recovery from this economic illness but everyone realized that in the era of globalization when a superpower like U.S.A sneeze the rest of the world economy catches cold.

Moreover, what is interesting to note about the period post recession is that developing countries recovered better and faster than the developed ones. This ‘Reversal of fortunes’ is ironical and of the many impacts of globalization. Nevertheless, what catches the attention of aam adami (common man) are the negative implications of globalisation like inflation, hike in petrol prices, fall in investment, depreciation of rupee, etc. By dint of such a situation we tend to overlook the progress that India made against the other developing nations in the world in recent past. The introduction of the rupee symbol, increasing GDP growth rate, strong spending on infrastructure for a strong base, boon of food security bill across India to as many as 200 villages and the list continues. The ones mentioned are just a few examples which remind us of the caliber that this country possesses to prove that it is ready to make itself a prominent figure in the global economy.

Does Sensex make any Sense?

Dow Jones for New York Stock Exchange, Nikkei for Tokyo Stock Exchange, Nasdaq Composite for NASDAQ, Sensex for Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), Nifty for National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the list continues. But what are these? Why do people even bother to know about them?  Nifty fifty (or just Nifty) and Sensex are the stock market indices in India. These are the indicators which tell the anxious investors in India largely about the share prices of stocks listed in these exchanges. People have huge amounts of money riding on stocks and Sensex and Nifty tell them about the market sentiments.

Sensex is an indicator for the value of the stocks listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. This value-weighted index consists of 30 companies from the BSE as representatives. This implies that the stocks of these 30 companies are the most actively traded ones in the stock exchange. The market capitalization of these 30 companies account for 50% of the total market capitalization in the Bombay Stock Exchange. This index, at any point of time, reflects the value of stocks relative to the base period.  The base period is  considered to be at 100. The big names listed under Sensex include Infosys Technologies Ltd., ITC Ltd., Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., Reliance Industries Ltd., Tata Motors Ltd., etc.

Nifty on the other hand has 50 companies under its umbrella. All these 50 companies are listed on the National Stock Exchange and Nifty performs the job as a loyal indicator of stocks in the NSE. Here also, most of the companies boast of large capital share in the market. The companies in the Nifty index are well diversified and cover 23 sectors of the Indian economy. The market capitalization of the companies under this index envelops 60% of the total market capitalization in NSE. Base period for Nifty is 3^rd November 1995. Nifty has top names like Reliance Industries, Infosys Technologies, ICICI Bank and Larsen & Toubro in its profile which constitute about one-third of the weight of the index.

After knowing about these incredible indices which control the stock market to such a great extent; the method followed for calculating these indices deserve a mention. It is done through a “free-float market capitalization” method. It sounds big, but it is not rocket science. To put it in simple words “Market Capitalization” is the value of the company in terms of its share capital raised through the market. This is how we have labeled different companies under small-cap, mid-cap and large-cap (cap for capitalization). Let’s dig in a little deeper, all the shares of a company are not available in the stock market. Some of the shares are held by the company’s promoters, government and some are held in the FDI route. Rests of the shares are accessible in the “open market” and are free for trading by anyone; these are called the “free-float” shares. While calculating these indices, we are interested in these “free-float” shares only. If we multiply the current price of free-float shares by number of shares, we will get the “free-float market cap” which is the value of a company in the stock market. Hence, to calculate Sensex, a market cap of 30 companies is used and a market cap of 50 companies is used for Nifty.

The level of Sensex and Nifty are immensely helpful in determining the current value of stocks in the market. Closely following the market trends can help speculate future response. For the same reason, now the job done by researchers and market analysts  is regarded as a profession in the current scenario. The information provided by them is essential for making crucial decisions in terms of investing and other market activities.